Down The Tubes
May 27, 2008It finally happened. No, not a nasty letter from the State Bar. It finally cost me over 50 dollars to fill up my gas tank, $51.00 to be exact. I knew this day was coming, the cost to fill up my tank has been going for in the 30 dollar range, to the low 40’s, then the high 40’s, and now finally it breaks 50.
Scott had two recent posts that got me thinking about this topic more. The first was discussing an New York Times article (I have to stop reading these articles from the Times, I’m going to get kicked out of Texas) by Thomas Friedman. The second is about our love for trucks and SUVs.
Basically, Friedman states in his column that with the way things are going, he who has the oil is going to make the rules. While that’s probably an accurate statement of the world today, he states the balance of power is going to keep shifting, and even the mighty United States, with all our advantages, may be reduced to Canada-like status.
The failure of Mr. Bush to fully mobilize the most powerful innovation engine in the world — the U.S. economy — to produce a scalable alternative to oil has helped to fuel the rise of a collection of petro-authoritarian states — from Russia to Venezuela to Iran — that are reshaping global politics in their own image.
If this huge transfer of wealth to the petro-authoritarians continues, power will follow. According to Congressional testimony Wednesday by the energy expert Gal Luft, with oil at $200 a barrel, OPEC could “potentially buy Bank of America in one month worth of production, Apple computers in a week and General Motors in just three days.”
Friedman then wonders how the US its going to pull its collective bacon out of the fire this time.
For too long, argues Zakaria, America has taken its many natural assets — its research universities, free markets and diversity of human talent — and assumed that they will always compensate for our low savings rate or absence of a health care system or any strategic plan to improve our competitiveness.
“That was fine in a world when a lot of other countries were not performing,” argues Zakaria, but now the best of the rest are running fast, working hard, saving well and thinking long term. “They have adopted our lessons and are playing our game,” he said. If we don’t fix our political system and start thinking strategically about how to improve our competitiveness, he added, “the U.S. risks having its unique and advantageous position in the world erode as other countries rise.
Scott’s take on the article is that Friedman is confident the U.S. will figure out something, and everything will turn out fine. He (Scott) goes on to say he’s not as confident, and what’s going to happen if there is no magic bullet.
This is what Friedman talks about when he remains optimistic about encouraging the United States economy to perform its magic yet again. He believes in miracles. He believes that our captains of industry, our engineers, our scientists will come up with something, anything, to save the day if only we push them.
What if they don’t? There is no guarantee that another internet will come along just in the nick of time to save the day. Maybe we’ve used up our good fortune. Maybe the ride is over. You only get so much good luck before your luck runs dry.
Friedman may be right, that we still have some juice in the economy to pull us out of this jam. Perhaps “Mr. Fusion” is right around the corner, and the rest of the world will come running to us for their needs. But even so, can we count on another miracle to come along the next time? And as long as Americans continue to hide our heads in the sand, there will most assuredly be a next time.
I disagree with Scott that Friedman is optimistic. Maybe I’m reading the article wrong, or perhaps he’s a regular reader of Friedman, but I don’t take from this article that Friedman is especially optimistic. However, I agree with Scott that keeping our heads in the sand and just hoping that something will come along to save us isn’t a good way to handle the situation. I don’t know what the answer is, assuming there is one. I’m just a simple country lawyer. But I do know that the current path isn’t the answer.
Posted by badcourtthingy